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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.