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Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|