Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
